CHINA MAY ATTACK INDIA- MOIN ANSARI

India headed for war in China’s Southern Tibet, Arunchal Pradesh?

Written by Moin Ansari World Sep 6, 2009

One of our Articles published on Rupee News was titled The coming war between India and China by Moin Ansari. The article cleary described the rising tensions between Beijing and Delhi. Those tension which were at fever pitch in March are at a boiling point in the sizzling heat of the Himalayan summer. The 90,000 Buddhist enclave of Southern Tibet is occupied by Bharat which tries to call it “Arunchal Pradesh”. China actually took it back in 1962, but after defeating Bharat Beijing in a fit of magnanimity withdrew her forces. Jittery Delhi fears Chinese attack by 2012.
India China border dispute. Bharat occupies the territory of South Tibet which it calls Arunchal Pradesh. In an era of increased tension, Chinese forces have built a robut network of roads and rails to the border and Bharat has placed SU planes Tezpurto 3200 km or 8500 km with fuel tanks
South Tibet remains a huge territorial dispute between China and India. Arunachal Pradesh means “land of the dawn-lit mountains” or “land of rising sun.” South Tibet is located in the northeast corner of the India and bordered on the north by the Tibet region of China and on the east by Myanmar. The dipute began long before the Indo-Chinese War in late 1962. This region acquired an independent political status in January 20th, 1972, when it was declared as Union Territory, an administrative division of India ruled directly by the national government, under the name of Arunachal Pradesh. The state of Arunachal Pradesh Billwas passed by the Indian Parliament in 1986 and with effect from February 20th, 1987; Arunachal Pradesh became the 24th state of Indian Union. Even though Arunachal Pradesh is administrated by India as a state, China still claims most of it as a part of the Tibet Autonomous Region

In the past century the Chinese have walked softly and hidden the Big stick. It has whispered where others have shouted. The leadership in Beiing has bitten its lip on Taiwan and Arunchal Pradesh. It has kept quiet on the boundary line South of Tibet and kept quiet on international issues that it felt strongly about. Now the results are evident for all to see. The pace of Chinese development in the past 60 years is one of the wonders of the world. Who shot down the IAF jet in China’s South Tibet “Arunchal Pradesh”?

The coming war between Delhi & Beijing. Things seem to be getting serious. There is unrest in Tibet and Kashgar is aflame. Kashmir is openly in a rebellion and the seven states of Assam are not in the Central control of Delhi. Rupee News has written several articles about the coming war between Beijing and Delhi. Bharat Verma an Indian analyst who writes for the Indian Defense Journal has openly discussed the fears in a recent article. The Peoples Daily has not remained unaffected by the the rising tensions.

Some are afraid that a fresh border dispute between China and India would become the spark plunging the two neighbors again into a ‘partial military action.’ And India seems to have been conspiring to create the picture of an imminent war by deploying 60,000-strong additional troops and four SU-30 fighters along the 650-mile unfenced border with China. By Li Hongmei People’s Daily Online. Veiled threat or good neighbor?

In a front page story, the New York Times highlights the rising tension between the two countries.

TAWANG, India — This is perhaps the most militarized Buddhist enclave in the world.

Perched above 10,000 feet in the icy reaches of the eastern Himalayas, the town of Tawangis not only home to one of Tibetan Buddhism’s most sacred monasteries, but is also the site of a huge Indian military buildup. Convoys of army trucks haul howitzers along rutted mountain roads. Soldiers drill in muddy fields. Military bases appear every half-mile in the countryside, with watchtowers rising behind concertina wire.

A road sign on the northern edge of town helps explain the reason for all the fear and the fury: the border with China is just 23 miles away; Lhasa, the Tibetan capital, 316 miles; and Beijing, 2,676 miles.

“The Chinese Army has a big deployment at the border, at Bumla,” said Madan Singh, a junior commissioned officer who sat with a half-dozen soldiers one afternoon sipping tea beside a fog-cloaked road. “That’s why we’re here.”

Though little known to the outside world, Tawang is the biggest tinderbox in relations between the world’s two most populous nations. It is the focus of China’s most delicate land-border dispute, a conflict rooted in Chinese claims of sovereignty over all of historical Tibet.

In recent months, both countries have stepped up efforts to secure their rights over this rugged patch of land. China tried to block a $2.9 billion loan to India from the Asian Development Bank on the grounds that part of the loan was destined for water projects in Arunachal Pradesh, the state that includes Tawang. It was the first time China had sought to influence the territorial dispute through a multilateral institution. Then the governor of Arunachal Pradesh announced that the Indian military was deploying extra troops and fighter jets in the area.

The growing belligerence has soured relations between the two Asian giants and has prompted one Indian military leader to declare that China has replaced Pakistan as India’s biggest threat.

Economic progress might be expected to bring the countries closer. China and India did $52 billion worth of trade last year, a 34 percent increase over 2007. But business people say border tensions have infused business deals with official interference, damping the willingness of Chinese and Indian companies to invest in each other’s countries.

“Officials start taking more time, scrutinizing things more carefully, and all that means more delays and ultimately more denials, “ said Ravi Bhoothalingam, a former president of the Oberoi Group, the luxury hotel chain, and a member of the Institute of Chinese Studies in New Delhi. “That’s not good for business.”

The roots of the conflict go back to China’s territorial claims to Tibet, an enduring source of friction between China and many foreign nations. China insists that this section of northeast India has historically been part of Tibet, and should be part of China.

Tawang is a thickly forested area of white stupas and steep, terraced hillsides that is home to the Monpa people, who practice Tibetan Buddhism, speak a language similar to Tibetan and once paid tribute to rulers in Lhasa. The Sixth Dalai Lama was born here in the 17th century. The Chinese Army occupied Tawangbriefly in 1962, during a war with India fought over this and other territories along the 2,521-mile border.

More than 3,100 Indian soldiers and 700 Chinese soldiers were killed and thousands wounded in the border war. Memorials here highlighting Chinese aggression in Tawang are big draws for Indian tourists.September 4, 2009. Uneasy Engagement China and India Dispute Enclave on Edge of Tibet By EDWARD WONG. Xiyun Yang contributed research from Beijing.

The pace of Chinese development in the past 60 years is one of the wonders of the world. Not long ago the entire Chinese nation was kept in bondage by the East India Company which forced the country to continue to import opium. When the patriots revolted, Britain forced two wars on them. Finally Mao Ze Dung led the country to freedom from the machinations of Imperial Japan, Colonial Britain and a US which was supporting others in the civil war. In the past century the Chinese have walked softly and hidden the Big stick. It has whispered where others have shouted. The leadership in Beijing has bitten its lip on Taiwan and Arunchal Pradesh. It has kept quiet on the boundary line South of Tibet and kept quiet on international issues that it felt strongly about. Now the results are evident for all to see.

India has been buying weapons and trying to build them for decades. It has been buying junk from Moscow (Flying Coffins) and has been unable to produce weapons on its own. The list of Indian failures is long. Kevari Engine, Tejas LCA, Trishul, Nag, Agni Arjun and Brahmos are a few examples of the total failure of the Delhi arms. Indian missile failures.

Despite spending humongous amounts of money the bureaucrats of the Ganges have been unable to make Bharat self-sufficient in arms production. It is the only country of any sizable size which cannot produce arms that it can export. This colossal failure of the Bharati arms industry has filtered down to the total lack of any credible manufacturing from Goa to Gurdaspur.

The following nine data points which cause alarm among Beijing and Delhi watchers.

■The Bharati Army has conducted an exercise called Divine Matrix fighting a war with China.
■The US reports increased Chinese activity in developing weapons that target Bharat.
■Recently Delhi moved its latest aircraft to forward Air bases in Tezpur and in Ladakh.
■The number of intrusions into South Tibet (Bharat calls it Arunchal Pradesh) has quadrupled in the past year.
■The Chinese are very suspicious of the rioting in Tibet in 2008 and the riots in Zinjiang this year and suspect that the CIA and the RAW had a hand inboth events.
■Mr. Bharat Verma, who has tangled with the former DG of the ISI, Retired General Hamid Gul on many occasions has now written an inflammatory article in the Indian Defense Weekly clearly portraying Bharati fears of a Chinese attack on Delhi.
■“China’s stated objectives, in their White Paper, of developing strategic missile and space-based assets and of rapidly enhancing its blue-water navy to conduct operations in distant waters, as well as the systematic upgrading of infrastructure, reconnaissance and surveillance, quick response and operational capabilities in the border areas, will have an effect on the overall military environment in the neighbourhood of India.” (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS-India-India-wary-of-Sino-Pak-link-up-in-occupied-Kashmir/articleshow/4768468.cms)
■China has stationed 30 military divisions in the Arunachal Pradesh area, of which it claims about 90,000 sq. Km of South Tibet.
■The Bharati Defence ministry’s annual report for 2008-09 tabled in Rajya Sabha recently has indicated that there is increased link up between Pakistan and China via Kashmir – the territory that was won by China in 1962 and given by Pakistan to China as part of the Trans-Karakoram treaty.
■“The entire border is disputed,” said Ma Jiali, an India scholar at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, a government-supported research group in Beijing. “This problem hasn’t been solved, and it’s a huge barrier to China-India relations.”
Map of “South Tibet” Chinese territory Arunchal Pradesh occupied by India
In some ways, Tawang has become a proxy battleground, too, between China and the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader of the Tibetans, who passed through this valley when he fled into exile in 1959. From his home in the distant Indian hill town of Dharamsala, he wields enormous influence over Tawang. He appoints the abbot of the powerful monastery and gives financial support to institutions throughout the area. Last year, the Dalai Lama announced for the first time that Tawang is a part of India, bolstering the India’s territorial claims and infuriating China.

Traditional Tibetan culture runs strong in Tawang. One morning in June, the monastery held a religious festival that drew hundreds from the nearby villages. As red-robed monks chanted sutras, blew horns and swung incense braziers in the monastery courtyard, the villagers jostled each other to be blessed by the senior lamas.

At the monastery, an important center of Tibetan learning, monks express rage over Chinese rule in Tibet, which the Chinese Army seized in 1951.

“I hate the Chinese government,” said Gombu Tsering, 70, a senior monk who watches over the monastery’s museum. “Tibet wasn’t even a part of China. Lhasa wasn’t a part of China.”

Map of Chinese territory called Aksai Chin is. Both parties to the dispute, China and Pakistan agree. India is not a party to this issue

Few expect China to try to annex Tawang by force, but military skirmishes are a real danger, analysts say. The Indian military recorded 270 border violations and nearly 2,300 instances of “aggressive border patrolling” by Chinese soldiers last year, said Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research, a research organization in New Delhi. Mr. Chellaney has advised the Indian government’s National Security Council.

“The India-China frontier has become more ‘hot’ than the India-Pakistan border,” he said in an e-mail message.

Two years ago, Chinese soldiers demolished a Buddhist statue that Indians had erected at Bumla, the main border pass above Tawang, a member of the Indian Parliament, Nabam Rebia, said in a session of Parliament.

Tawangbecame part of modern India when Tibetan leaders signed a treaty with British officials in 1914 that established a border called the McMahon Line between Tibet and British-run India. Tawang fell south of the line. The treaty, the Simla Convention, is not recognized by China.

“We recognize it because we agreed to it,” said Samdhong Rinpoche, prime minister of the Tibetan government-in-exile. “If China agreed to it now, it would be a recognition of the power of the Tibet government at that time.” September 4, 2009. Uneasy Engagement China and India Dispute Enclave on Edge of Tibet By EDWARD WONG. Xiyun Yang contributed research from Beijing.

It is no secret that Asia faces a trilateral fight which has global dimensions and regional implications. Should the world look toward the coming war between India and China or should it prepare for a multipolar planet? A set of Subsuperpowers makes the triangle very complex. In three dimensions this becomes a complicated pyramid.During the Bush era the United States decided it could no longer rely on a regional triangle with one ally, one competitor and one neutral third party.

The Bush Administration therefore tried to become allies with two countries to keep the third one neutral. The Obama policy run by Hillary Clinton has turned the Bush policy on its head. Instead of building a nexus with Bharat against China, Hillary Clinton has chosen to build a relationship with China. Delhi is the odd man out. The Times of India in a recent article commented on the growing feeling in Delhi that the Bush days are over. No amount of rhetoric from the likes of Bruce Reidel can change the new realities in Asia.

The rise of China threatens Japan, and makes the Bharatis nervous. There are many possible scenarios on the global scene. Indiaus, Chindia, or Chinapak or Uspak? Are the zero-sum games of the Cold War over? India vs. China: who is winning? Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro’s have rebutted the rosy scenarios painted by Peter Engardio’s Chindia. The seminal book called “The Coming Conflict with China (1997)” describes a nightmare scenario for Asia. He foresees disasters just around the corner. As Beijing prepares for the “Chinese Century“, many questions are unanswered. The end of an era, the shrinking superpower, the emerging quad led by China.

Li Hongmei People’s Daily sheds some light on the reasons for the rising tensions between the giant neighbors.

As an Indian military official put it, ‘Indians maintain the same national sentiments towards China as the way the Chinese do at the mention of Japan and Japanese,’ many Indians actually have very subtle impression upon China, which has been translated into a very complicated mindset—awe, vexation, envy and jealousy—in the face of its giant neighbor.

The reason for this mentality is multi-faceted, and brought about by both historical factors and reality. In 1947, when India freed itself from the British colonization and won independence, it was one of the global industrial powers, ranking Top 10 in the world and far ahead of the then backward China. But today, China’s GDP has tripled that of India and per capitaincome doubled, which turns out to be a totally unacceptable fact to many Indians. And with China’s galloping economic growth since its adoption of the reform and opening up policy in late 1970s, the wealth gap between China and India has increasingly widened.

On top of that, some Western powers have been inciting India to challenge China, and even insidiously convince India that China would be the ‘greatest obstacle’ threatening India’s rise. To feed its ambitions, the West has gone so far as to devise ways to extol India as a potentially No.1 democracy in Asia, but meanwhile intentionally play down China’s social and economic progress. By Li Hongmei People’s Daily Online. Veiled threat or good neighbor?

China has grown increasingly hostile to the Dalai Lama after severe ethnic unrest in Tibet in 2008. This year, it turned its diplomatic guns on India over the Tawang issue. China moved in March to block a $2.9 billion loan to India from the Asian Development Bank, a multination group based in Manila that has China on its board, because $60 million of the loan had been earmarked for flood-control projects in Arunachal Pradesh. The loan was approved in mid-June over China’s heated objections.

“China expresses strong dissatisfaction to the move, which can neither change the existence of immense territorial disputes between China and India, nor China’s fundamental position on its border issues with India,” Qin Gang, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, said in a written statement.

In May, weeks after China first tried to block the loan, the chief of the Indian Air Force, Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi, now retired, told a prominent Indian newspaper that China posed a greater threat than Pakistan.

Another official, J. J. Singh, the governor of Arunachal Pradeshand a retired chief of the Indian Army, said the next month that the Indian military was adding two divisions of troops, totaling 50,000 to 60,000 soldiers, to the border region over the next several years. Four Sukhoi fighter jets were immediately deployed to a nearby air base.

Since 2005, when Prime Minister Wen Jiabaoof China visited India, the two countries have gone through 13 rounds of bilateral negotiations over the issue. A round was held just last month, with no results.

“The China-India border has got to be one of the most continuously negotiated borders in modern history,” said M. Taylor Fravel, an associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who is a leading expert on China’s borders. “That shows how intractable this dispute is.” September 4, 2009. Uneasy Engagement China and India Dispute Enclave on Edge of Tibet By EDWARD WONG. Xiyun Yang contributed research from Beijing.

There are other issues that have cropped up as well. They indicate a heightening of the tensions and the possibility of war.

The Indian army has predicted a war with its nuclear-armed neighbor China by 2017 as Beijing continues to strengthen its military muscle.

A secret military exercise, called ‘Divine Matrix’, by the Indian troops visualized a war scenario with China, the Hindustan Times reported Saturday. “A misadventure by China is very much within the realm of possibility with Beijing trying to position itself as the only power in the region,” a senior army officer told the daily following the maneuver.

An Indian military’s assessment has outlined that Beijing would rely on information warfare (IW) to bring New Delhi down on its knees. Earlier on Wednesday, the Pentagon released a report warning that China was busily trying to arm its forces with weapons that can be used to nullify the superiority of any naval and air power that could disrupt the balance of region.

China is concerned about growing ties between Washington and New Delhi. A controversial deal allowing India access to civilian nuclear technology has not been well-received among Chinese officials.

New Delhi, meanwhile, is suspicious of Chinese relations with India’s long-time rival Pakistan. India and China fought a brief but bloody war over border dispute in 1962 with a decisive victory for the Chinese. Pak Alert

The conventional wisdom globally is that Pakistan is China’s Israel. China is the dominant power in Asia and increasingly it looks that Bharat will remain an “also ran”. Certainly Harvard analysts like Paragh Khanna seem to think so. He says Delhi has missed the boat. Despite a lot of rhetoric emanating from Delhi the Slumdog power has been unable to challenge the Chinese moves in Kashmir, Tibet, Lanka, Mayanmar, Thailand, Bangladesh, Gwader, Tehran, Korea, or Africa.

Nehru had tried to wrest control of Tibet from China. It has failed to do so and a few years back Delhi acknowledged the suzerainty of Beijing over Lasha. However Bharat never loses an opportunity to stir up trouble for China in Tibet. Delhi thinks of Tibet as its strategic depth–a way to destroy and balkanize the Chinese republic. Bharati catatonia about China’s intentions are based on it policies of intervention in all her neighbors, Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Thailand, Mayanmar, Maldives and of course Pakistan.

Much is going on behind the scenes and on the ground along the 4,057-kilometer-long McMohan Line, the British demarcated ephemeral line in the sand that roughly demarcates the borders between the “Union of Indian states” called “Bharat” and the Middle Kingdom called “China“.

The Indian army has predicted a war with its nuclear-armed neighbor China by 2017 as Beijing continues to strengthen its military muscle

( sOURCE: pAKISTAN tIMES iNTERNET WEB SITE)