Will China go for Limited War under nuclear umbrella against India?

bY Neha Kumar
10/12/2009

China continues to be a cause of worry for India despite of rapidly growing trade relationship between the two countries. India’s total trade to China has crossed US $ 13.6 billion with Indian exports to China touching to $ 7677.43 million and imports from China at $ 5926.67 million. The political relationships between the two countries are always tense due to China’s continuous claim over Indian Territory, especially Arunachal Pradesh. Recently, there have been reports that Chinese troops have entered into 1.5km into Indian Territory in Ladakh and put red paint marks written as ‘China’ on boulders and stones. This is not the first time when China has violated LAC. According to Indian defence officials, there were 270 line of control violations by the People’s Liberation Army and 2,285 instances of ‘aggressive border patrolling’ in the last year. Soon after news of China’s intrusion in Ladakh, India declared its plan for converting Andaman and Nicobar Island into a military base, which will consist of Nuclear Submarine base at South Andaman, Permanent Sukhoi base at car Andaman, Aircraft carrier base, Permanent Tactical Vertical Recon Base at Campbell Bay and also expansion of INS Kardip Advance Naval Base at Nicobar. India is also bringing up its tanks in mountains of Sikkim and also deploying two additional army mountain divisions and two squadrons of the advanced Sukhoi 30 MKI bomber aircraft in Assam which is backed by three airborne early warning and control systems.

However, the question is whether there can be repeat of Sino-Indian 1962 war given the fact that both countries are recognised as nuclear weapon state . Clausewitz has done a remarkable work on limited war and has specified the conditions under which a state could opt for limited war, as mentioned below: a) Clausewitz said that vital interests of state calls for unlimited war while secondary interests of state call for limited war which involve limited investment and limited use of resources. Thus, the importance of belligerents’ stakes in the war as defined by their political leaders as well as their reciprocal interaction determines whether the war remains limited in scope. b) The availability of relative strength of the belligerents also determines whether to go for limited war or full scale war. c) The third reason given is that limited war will happen if defending side has no incentive to wage a war or when weaker side is attacked by the stronger one.

In such cases, the weaker side will try to wage a war at the lowest possible cost.d) If the objective of states is only to occupy a relative amount of territory, it will wage a limited war. Clausewitz also mentioned that limited offensives will strengthen the attacker if the territory to be acquired is adjacent to it. However, the attacker would be weaken if the territory to be acquired is non-contiguous.However, what Clausewitz has ignored is the technological development which force states to go for limited war. It was noted by Liddle Hart and he mentioned that ‘Where both sides have atomic power, total wars make nonsense and any unlimited war fought by nuclear weapons would be worse than nonsense, it will be mutually suicidal.’ The possession of nuclear weapons is one of the reasons for keeping warfare limited.
South Asia faced limited war under nuclear umbrella with Pakistan during Kargil conflict.

However, the question is that whether China will go for limited war so as to achieve its territorial aims in India. Regarding China, it has some history of waging limited warfare to achieve its aim of ‘national unification.’ China had border skirmish with Russia in 1969 for Island in river Ussari and also it fought a limited war with Vietnam in 1979 over the issue of Cambodia. Similarly, Sino-India 1962 war also came under the category of limited war which was fought on India’s north east border. Therefore, there are examples from history which shows that China has interest in waging limited war to achieve its territorial aims. However, the present situation is much different from what was during cold war. Applying Cluasewitz reasons, one can see draw following conclusions: a) The first requirement for limited war is based on vital interests or secondary interests of the state on the basis of which state will decide whether to go for limited war or full scale conventional war. It is important to note here that China regards its ‘national reunification’ as most important goal and for achieving it China is going for rapid economic and military modernisation. China considers Tibet as palm which has five fingers namely, Nepal,
Sikkim, Bhutan, NEFA (Arunachal Pradesh) and Ladakh. They consider it has ‘an integral part of Han physique.’ Out of these, three belongs to India (Sikkim, Arunchal Pradesh and Ladakh). Beside this, China also claims Andaman and Nicobar Island and also tried to have its influence into Indian Ocean. This refuted two of the requirements for limited war, i.e. limited war on secondary interests and claim over limited territory. China regards this unification plan as ‘vital’ to its security interests and not as of secondary importance. b) The next reason for going for limited war is availability of limited resources. It is to note here that China is superior to India in both the realm of conventional and nuclear weapons. China has invested its resources to obtain such supremacy. Also, from economical viewpoint, China is more developed than India.

Therefore, there is no such limitation of resources from China’s view point. c) The fourth reason given above is that weaker side is attacked by stronger side and former wage limited war. This is also not applicable to India-China case because the ladder of escalation lies in the hands of China and not in the hand of India. It will be China who will be in the position to decide whether to go for limited war or for full scale conventional war. In addition to this, China’s strategy does not aim at waging limited warfare against India. China is encircling India by having close relationship with Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. China is in fact taking advantage of the loopholes in the relationship between India and its neighboring countries. China is investing lot in having good relationship with all these countries and it would not invest so much of energies and resources just to wage a limited war against India. Now, coming to the question whether China could wage a full scale when both states possess nuclear weapons. One can find answer of this question by putting situations in the context of game theory.

Here, there are two players and there payoffs wary from 0 to 4, 0 being the worst outcome and 4 being the best outcome for each player. It is described below: State BCooperate Don’t Cooperate Cooperate 3,3 2, 4 Don’t Cooperate 4,2 0,0 State A Here, if both states cooperate, status quo will prevail (3, 3). If one state cooperate but other not, the non-cooperative state win game (2, 4) while if both states decide not to cooperate with each other war occurs giving worst outcome (0, 0). However, the advantage of state lies when they do not cooperate while other cooperates. Here each state prefer status quo to the winning of other state and prefers wining of other state to war. This can be seen from the following equation. Status Quo > Wining of adversary >War If applied to the decision for the China to wage full scale conventional war, we can see it has following options: (1) Do not wage war but continue to claim territories and try to influence these areas by using soft powers or by supporting insurgencies in India. (This has been already done but it does not provide full scale control of China on these territories) (2) Do not wage war and gave up its claim on Indian territories (This will fuel domestic opposition of Chinese people against their own government. This option is very unlikely as it is well known that China seldom gave up its claim on territories) (3) Wage limited war and obtain these territories ( This will avoid nuclear war and also gave China a chance to completely assimilate these territories into China) (4) Wage full scale war and obtain these territories (There is fear of nuclear weapon use under such circumstances. If china uses nuclear weapons, these territories will be damaged and will be of no use to China. It will also gave rise to international criticism of China’s behavior and may also involve the US) From the above analysis, it is clear that it would be irrational for China to go for full scale war under nuclear umbrella. The question than arise that why China is projecting that it is preparing for some big conflict and not for limited war. The strategy of China is to have limited warfare (due to presence of nuclear weapons) and than to escalate it to full scale conventional war depending on the circumstances. China would give India two options: to give up limited war and loose territories or else china will escalate it to a high level causing large scale economic and civilian damage to India. China will wage limited war only because of presence of nuclear weapons in the continent. However, it will not hesitate to go for full scale war if its interests are not achieved. The reason is that China can go to any level to achieve its aim of national unification which is vital to its security interests. It is true that India’s defence preparedness could be compared to 1962 war. However, China stands superior to India in the realm of conventional weapons. India is also facing shortage of army officers which make the condition much worse. In case, India try to struggle with China or try to escalate the issue at international level, China will definitely gave threat of its nuclear weapons. China is even making itself strong enough to deal with any interference of the US. China has carried out military exercises involving 50,000 troops mainly by keeping the US in mind. China is also accumulating oil which is important for wining war in modern times. China has also planning to have DF-41 missile by October 2009 which pose threat to the US. Therefore, China wants to resist all the interference by the US while achieving its territorial aims. China has constructed a grand strategy to achieve its so called ‘national unification’ and also to keep the US at bay. The problem with India is that it continues to ignore military threat coming from China and depend lot on the US and other international community in case of any conflict. India should understand that China is not like Pakistan which will bow before the diplomatic pressure of the US. The only option before India is only to have good conventional forces along with nuclear weapons so that it can wage successful limited war against China. It is high time for India to realise military threat coming from its neighborhood and to prepare itself for such contingencies.